New Government - What comes next for public services?

Scottish Convenor, MIKE KIRBY, reviews the headlines from the coalition agreement of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, focussing on the impact on our members at work.

Will You be One in half a million? The Chartered Institute of Personnel Development (CIPD) estimates that half a million jobs will go, on top of the current unemployment figures of 2.5 million, as a result of the projected cuts in government spending.

We've been promised an Emergency Budget in 50 days on 22 June. This will be the set piece announcement, in which Chancellor George Osborne shows the markets he is tough enough to deliver the deep cuts they are looking for.

The Tories want to take another £6 billion out of public spending in this current financial year to show they can reduce the deficit faster than New Labour. Before the election the Liberal Democrats argued, rightly, that this would hit the recovery and increase the risk of a "double dip" recession.

In April Vince Cable said: "Cutting too soon and pushing the economy back into recession will make the deficit worse, as tax receipts fall and benefit payments rise. The Conservatives' so-called efficiency savings are particularly dangerous. They have no clue where or how these 'efficiencies' will be made, making it likely they will be nothing more than a smoke screen for job cuts."

But they've obviously changed their mind, the price of a place at the Cabinet table, the new coalition agreement states that "cuts of £6 billion to non-front-line services can be made within the financial year 2010-11".

The Tories based their assertion that such savings were possible on statements they extracted from New Labour's advisors on their own efficiency drive, but said that an additional £12 billion of efficiency savings could be made immediately.

This £12bn (half of which would supposedly be reinvested in frontline services, leaving £6bn as an absolute cut in total spend), is on top of £30bn annual efficiency savings already extracted from public sector since 2007 under New Labour's last Spending Review and an additional £5bn extra savings already announced for this year in New Labour's 2009 Budget.

£37 billion in cuts The Financial Times estimated on the previous governments plans, that £37.4 billion would have to be cut from public spending by 2014, if the deficit as promised is to be halved.

That's £37.4 billion in the expected lifetime of this fixed term coalition.

That's 25% of the whole NHS budget, half the cost of the basic state pension,10 times the NHS dentists' bill, three quarters of the defence budget

And remember, the pressure on public sector cuts, is likely to hit hardest on women, often the low earners, as workers and family users of services.

It is important to be aware that the Emergency Budget will be a mere foretaste of the cuts that can be expected in the autumn Comprehensive Spending Review.

What budget will say

We can expect it to include:

- deep cuts or very tight restrictions to funding and provision in health, education, social services, policing, housing, and throughout our public services

- further plans on imposing pay restraint across the public sector beyond the pay freeze already announced for 2011-12

- recommendations of the "independent review" of public sector pensions.

While the focus will inevitably be on cuts and spending, there may be some minor consolation in the coalition proposals in areas of social policy and civil liberties.

They will implement the Calman Commission proposals on more tax powers for Holyrood, but no date has been set. While there is no mention of scrapping the Barnett formula, which provides Scotland's budget, it is not clear what the knock-on effect of the £6billion cuts will be and when.

The shine of restoring the state pensions link with earnings, is severely tarnished by raising state pension age to 66, not sooner than 2016 for men and 2020 for women.

The review of public sector pensions will threaten final salary schemes and closing schemes to new entrants. Criticism of the previous government's attacks on civil liberties may be addressed, with the end to the detention of migrant children (will Dungavel close?) and the scrapping of ID cards and future plans for biometric passports.

Some will question the absurdity of the coalition, that it will be unsatisfactory and short-lived. However, we may also ask "Did New Labour pass the poisoned chalice?"

Did they resist Lib Dem demands to cut the deficit further and faster? UNISON must lead fight Some in New Labour would be opposed instinctively to any form of proportional representation, and/or power- sharing.

They may say that the coalition will have its internal weaknesses and will crash and burn. However, with the prospect of a five year fixed term parliament, described by William Hague as "the locking together of the coalition" and a 55% threshold for a vote of no confidence, we could have five years of pain.

With unemployment continuing to rise, the priority must be to secure a recovery from the recession. Public services must be at the core of that recovery plan.

Across the UK there is a clear majority against deep cuts in public expenditure.

It is more important than ever that UNISON is seen to be at the forefront of the campaign to protect and expand public services and jobs.

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